Sorry storm tracker 2000 super-dooper Doppler TV guys, Bill continues to behave.  875 miles southeast of the coast, Hurricane is slapping fish silly with 105 kt winds and gusts to 130 kts. Bill is plodding along on course 315 at 15 knots, or 46,370.97 furlongs per fortnight. Bill is firmly embedded in the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge. The ridge and approaching trough that will be ejected off the US east coast will continue to keep Bill on the straight and narrow at sea.  There is astounding but not unprecedented agreement amongst all the early and late cycle models with this recurvature for the next 48-72 hours or until Bill reaches 40N; but hey, once Bill gets there, not our problem.

The intensity forecast, always problematic, is a tad complicated. There remains only a 24 hour window that Bill has any hope of further intensification. Once above 30N Bill will be over water marginal for just maintaining 100 kt intensity.  Already Bill is showing signs of 15-30 kt shear thumping Bill’s  northern edge. The eyewall is poorly defined in both visual and IR satellite imagery, also supporting the theory Bill is entering a not so friendly environment for intensification. The Official NHC intensity forecast is for Bill to only slightly intensify to 110 kts then weaken gradually after 24 hours.

This morning the Edisto  and Frying Pan Shoals buoys are only reporting 3 foot significant wave height along with a 3 foot, 15 second swell that started creeping in this morning. Expect the swells to jack up the significant wave heights today and Saturday making for pounding surf and treacherous coastal rip current. Closer to Bill, the Atlantic(south) buoy is reporting sig wave heights of 25-27 feet, or 16-18 cubits.

Closer to home expect numerous rain and thunder storms this afternoon and tonight. All this soupy air parked over us will provide a lot of juice for these storms. A few isolated cells will be severe with small hail and 40-50 mph wind gust. The primary threat will be localized blinding downpours making for some sporty traveling conditions.

Sunrise over Hurricane Bill:

The National Hurricane Center’s 5 day track forecast:

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov