OK, Now who flipped the big red hurricane switch? Yesterday’s tropical storm Danielle intensified rapidly into a 85 knot hurricane yesterday. Danielle is large an quite well organized despite 20-40 knots of westerly shear north of the hurricane’s center. This shear should relax in the next 48 hours and allow Danielle to intensify further into a 105 knot storm.  Danielle is currently 2704 miles east-southeast of the State Climate Office hurricane bunker in Bucklick SC (Careful with that one…). Danielle is tracking west at a spry 17 knots. Danielle will encounter a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge (a.k.a. Bermuda Shorts, oops, I meant High). This is where Danielle will also enjoy weaker shear. In 24-36 hours Danielle will slow, intensify, run with scissors and turn to a more northwest recurving track that keeps the hurricane well east of Bermuda. There is consistent, close agreement amongst the models with this forecast track scenario. Danielle will deliver some 9-12 foot offshore waves late Sunday-early Monday, higher at Hatteras.

A second, vigorous wave east of Danielle and south of the Cape Verde Islands, designated 96L,  appears well organized this morning and will possibly become a tropical depression late today or tomorrow.  Unlike with the formation of Danielle, the models are having numerical hissy-fits with intensifying this feature. The US GFS say heck yes a bit too aggressively and the European ECMWF says a snooty no. My hunch is lingering upwelled cooler waters in the wake of Danielle will put a damper on 96L’s intensification. Over 3000 miles away, we can hold off with the plywood over the window drill for 96L for the time being..

The official National Hurricane Center (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) track forecast:

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202