Despite capricious intensity issues, Hurricane Danielle has started a slow turn to the northwest with winds estimated at 75 knots. Danielle you sassy manx. This morning Danielle is showing deep convection north of the center of circulation.  Currently Danielle is 2200 miles southeast of the world famous backhoe water skiing pond in Saluda County (We are so proud).  Danielle has slowed a tad to 15 knots as it enters a weakness in the Bermuda High. Danielle will continue on this track and recurve east of Bermuda. Model consensus continues albeit with a slight westward shift in the official Hurricane Center track. This should be tempered with the nerdish fact that the European ECMWF model is a  faster and more eastern outlier with respect to track (The ECMWF is a very high if not the highest resolution global model. I know, who cares Blackcloud.). Bottom line: Danielle remains east of Bermuda and South Carolina remains west of Bermuda. Intensity forecast is still problematic with all sort of pockets of shear to dog Danielle. There are windows in which Danielle will intensify 10-15 knots. Too bad for the fish.

1400 miles east of Danielle, 96L is following in Danielle’s wake. 96L appears more disorganized then it did yesterday. The environment is still conducive for slow intensification. A third impressive wave can be seen rolling of the west coast of Africa behind 96L. The models are showing varying interest in developing both of these features into tropical storms following in Danielle’s wake. Tis the season.

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202