This morning Hurricane Earl is 395 miles southeast of Charleston: Close enough to give anyone the vapors. Earl’s maximum winds are 125 knots (145 mph) and extend out 90 miles from the eye. Tropical Storm for winds extend out 225 miles. This very large hurricane is tracking north-northwest at 14 knots. Earl will turn to a more northerly course today and pass 230 miles east of Myrtle Beach as it rides the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge. East good. Earl should also accelerate northwards after tonight as it gets tangles in a upper level jet to the northwest. In many ways Earl is similar to the 1938 Hurricane (The Long Island Express) the pounded Long Island and slicked the beaches of Connecticut and Rhode Island as it roared north at 70mph (no typo, scary fast).

Earl’s intensity forecast has been a bag of weasels and broken glass. Earl, despite abundant dry air and moderate shear, still managed to intensify and get larger. The current forecast is for Earl to weaken slightly as it chugs north and starts to feel cooler coastal waters. That said, Earl is approaching the warmest and deepest stretch of the Gulf Stream provide some asymmetric intensification as it scrapes the Outer Banks of the other Carolina.

Some of the outermost bands of Earl are starting to brush Horry and Georgetown Counties.  Northerly to northwesterly winds will get a tad gusty this afternoon in the 15-20 knot range. 8-12 foot breakers and treacherous rip currents will be the primary coastal hazards.

Tropical Storm Fiona is currently 350 miles north of Puerto Rico with overly-generous estimated winds of 45 knots. Looking pretty junior varsity this morning. Fiona will continue to track northwest than north and remain a fish storm in the central Atlantic.

New Tropical Storm Gaston formed late yesterday. Gaston is 3032 miles southeast of Charleston with wind of 35-40 knots. Gaston will continue to track slowly west at 8-10 knots and slowly intensify over the weekend. Current long range intensity forecasts(badger, weasels and broken glass…) have Gaston becoming a 85 knot hurricane by next Tuesday. And another wave rolls off the west coast of Africa.

Tropical Storm Fiona’s forecast track:

Tropical Storm Gaston forecast track: