Shear took its toll on Henri overnight. Henri is 1400 miles southeast of Charleston and is prancing west at 10 kts north of the Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov)  downgraded Henri to a 30 kt tropical depression based on satellite wind estimates. Convection is well detached from the center of circulation on account of the 20-30 upper shear. Henri will begin to see  shear lessen today  but the large scale pattern will force subsidence over Henri that will inhibit convection. Would not be surprised to see some convection re-fire today on diurnal heating but overall the environment will be hostile towards any significant intensification. Despite the weak intensity and Henri’s disorganization the models are in surprising, nay shocking, agreement with regards to Henri’s track into the GoMex. Model intensity forecast? Not so good. My vote: Henri is not long for this world. Ain’t science grand?

The Official NHC forecast track:

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov