Say good morning to Tropical Storm Grace. The National Hurricane Center stealthly started advisories on Grace last night. Grace has estimated winds of 55 kts  and is heading northeast at a brisk 25 kts.  Grace’s radius of max winds is only 20 miles. Bizarre, but not a threat.

The only real tropical contestant of interest  is a large wave in the Central tropical Atlantic near 15N 45W. This blob of clouds with a bad comb-over is tracking west at 15 kts. Not a lot of organization but there is decent embedded convection. This feature is tussling with 30-40 kts of upper shear. Shear backs off during the next 48 hours but still hovers near 20kts which will make intensification a challenge. The models are in decent agreement with the sub-tropical ridge keeping this guy on a westerly track with limited development during the next 72 hours. The Prudent Mariner abides…

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov