State Climatologist returns from West Coast, potential tropical storm begins to form off East Coast. Scary coincidence.  One in a continuing series of tropical easterly waves became a tad frisky just northeast of Puerto Rico overnight. Convection is deepening although organization can best be described as Lady Gaga bad hair day. This wave, affectionately now dubbed 97L, is drifting west-northwest at 4-8 knots. With no center of circulation this track is fuzzy, and fraught with peril at best. Ship reports near 97L show winds 30-40 kts.

The latest set of model runs ( some not all, just to keep this game sporty) are showing 97L on a continued west-northwest track across southern Florida and into the eastern GoMex.  A few of the global models do nothing with 97L. Looking out the window at the real world, the position and strength of the sub-tropical ridge, a.k.a. Bermuda High resplendent with shorts and black socks, should be a strong enough barrier and keep 97L, if it does intensify, on a track into the GoMex.  Intensity models, a.k.a. throwing darts on a rollercoaster,  are hinting at a tropical storm  to weak hurricane. There is currently a belt of 30-40 knot upper shear to the north of 97L ;however this shear moves east and 97L will find a low shear environment conducive for strengthening.  But wait! Intensification near the large islands of the Greater Antilles is always tricky due to topography and coastal upwelling of cooler waters, any intensification should be slow. The Prudent Mariner watches… .

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202