Earl had a rough night at sea. This morning Earl is located 836 miles southeast of the State Climate Office hurricane bunker in Bucklick SC (711 miles from Charleston). Earl is chugging northwest (315 for the Prudent Mariner) at 14 knots. Intensity has decreased and Earl has winds 100-110 knots as measured by Air Force recon aircraft (assume no soup for the in-flight meal…). This morning’s water vapor image shows shear to the north of Earl and dry air entrainment  into the backside of Earl, neither comfortable for further intensification. Earl will continue to maintain this recurving track, turning more to the north late tonight. Model track forecast remain tightly clustere with regards to this track. Earl passes 240 miles east of Myrtle Beach at 8 PM Thursday night. At that time 34-50 knot tropical storm force winds will only extend out 150-175 miles west of Earl’s eye; let see, divide by Pi, carry the 2, multiply by Local Apparent Noon; yup, Earl stays clear of Horry County. Set the normal underway watch.

Earl’s intensity is what the Hurricane Center has called a “conundrum”. In this game, all tropical storm intensity forecasts are a conundrum wrapped in an enigma and bacon and deep fried. Shear and dry air should keep Earl limited to a 100-110 knot storm.  Abundant deep warm water should maintain this intensity for the next 48 hours.

Earl will produce 5-8 foot breaking waves along the northern SC coast. Expect treacherous rip currents as Earl piles up lots of water on the coast today through Saturday. Unfortunately to date,  due to Danielle and Earl, Riptides 2, swimmers 0, with many rescues. Thursday night Earls outer rainbands could produce isolated heavy rain showers over Georgetown and Horry counties with some gusty 20-25 knot winds.

750 miles behind Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona struggles west with 40 knot winds.  Earl’s upper outflow (that sounds naughty…) and the cool waters up-welled by Earl’s surface winds will continue to limit Fiona’s intensity. Much like, Earl Fiona will slow in the next 36 hours and turn to a more northerly recurving track, remaining well east of the coast. Yup, you guessed it,  fish storm Fiona. A third wave 1500 miles behind is disheveled and clueless with regards to intensification.

The National Hurricane Center’S (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ) forecast track for Hurricane Earl:

TROPICAL STORM FIONA:

TROPICAL STORM FIONA’ FORECAST TRACK: