A broad area of cloudiness near 15N, 050W has become better organized over the weekend. Designated  currently as 94L, this feature is drifting west-northwest at 15 kts. 94L is in an environment conducive for intensification and will become at least a tropical depression in the next 24-36 hours, that is if it isn’t one already. Sure looks like one this morning. There is a good band of upper level shear that may give 94L an intensity challenge later this week and this is suggested in this morning’s  GFS and GFDL model runs as the blob tracks north of Puerto Rico later this week. There are competing model solutions that suggest 94L could be our next hurricane; however there is always waffling in the early solutions as the models, especially the global models, have difficulty initializing the developing cyclone. The Prudent Mariner  would do well to peruse the model runs for the next few days as 94L continues westward.

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov