A large blob of convection 380 miles northeast of Puerto Rico has a decent shot at developing into the next tropical or sub-tropical system. Neither satellite QuikScat surface wind imagery  nor  ship observations show any cyclonic surface circulation. There is very good upper level divergence that seems to be the primary forcing for this area of convection. 92L is also over (see below) very warm 82 F water. In the same image you can see the cool sea surface temperature wake left by hurricane  Bill which will hamper any rapid intensification. 92L will continue to drift west-northwest at 20 kts and will enjoy favorable upper level winds for slow development for the next 48-72 hours.

The models continue to hang onto this feature recurving 92L a la Bill along the US East coast. Due to the current lack of organization there are differences amongst the models  with regards to placement and the amount of deepening  that develops. The current forecast thinking has 97L brushing our coast with offshore winds Saturday morning. Cape Hatteras gets the worst of the onshore winds.  If the forecast for 97L pans out, this feature rapidly scoots (yes, they can scoot…) quickly up the coast into New England on Sunday.

92L position designated by the red I:

92L position Saturday morning:

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov