92L continues to drift west-northwest at 18-20 kts. Convection is more compact and more centralized  than yesterday as this feature passes 325 miles north of Puerto Rico.  QuikScat satellite images consistently have shown 35-40 kt winds under the blob of convection; but, more importantly those images have shown no closed circulation or any hint of westerly winds. 92L is still just a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough.

92L is an area conducive for further development, just not rapid development. In 24-36 hours shear to the north of 92L relaxes and there is a better chance for this blob to spin up to at least a tropical depression. A stalled frontal boundary offshore will help 92L intensify but also keep it offshore. This tangle could also make 92L a hybrid subtropical  system. Whatever. If it quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, it ain’t a moose.

The models are in better agreement this morning with the track and the intensity forecast guess. Even the doom and gloom Canadian GEM has backed off a little. The models all take 92L on a recurving path in 48 hours when 92L is 350 miles southeast of Charleston (or 473 miles southeast of Bucklick South Carolina…). Once 92L begins to recurve Friday, 92L will rapidly accelerate northeast and briefly attain hurricane intensity east of Cape Hatteras.  The outer wind field may brush Georgetown and Horry Counties late Friday night –early Saturday morning based on the forecast track.  The forecast wind field is asymmetric as the storm recurves with the strongest winds well east of the forecast track, a reflection of forward motion and where the warmer deeper water is. Based on the models and what I see in the current wind field ( with a towel wrapped around my head in a dark windowless room…), my take is that those offshore winds would be in the 20-25 kt range at worst even if 92L became a named tropical storm as it passes our coast.

For a wimpy tropical wave there sure are a whole lot of mights and maybes…

QuikScat satellite wind image of 92L

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov