Hurricane Bill has undergone the transition to an extratropical low as it zips over cold waters past Newfoundland (warm core to cold core happy dance.). Pending the suspension of the immutable laws of physics, Bill is no longer a threat.

A large wave roughly 500 miles east of the Windward Island has limited potential to spin up to be the next tropical cyclone. The US GFS and NOGAPS models spin this wave up into a weak tropical storm this week. Both models take the cyclone on a Bill-like track offshore. There is muted agreement with the European models as they also carry this feature albeit with placement and intensity differences. The models also spin up a wave in the Central Atlantic at the end of this week that looks suspiciously like another Bill.  As always when chest deep in hurricane season, these model features should be evaluated run to run and compared to what we can actually see out the window.

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov